IMO you can't get caught up on how they get to the number, as long as whatever formula they do use is constantly used throughout time.
It's really weird they way they do this. UE will actually go up for a few months while the econommy improves, because more people will enter the workforce.
The 9.7% number is not really a big deal. The big deal, IMO, is that many of the leading indicators in the data are positive. Temporary hiring is a leading indicator and it is up. Temporary hiring is known to just about always be followed by permanent hiring. Another leading indicator is hours worked per week, and it is up. Maunfacturing is up as well.
The 9.7% is partly due to the workforce shrinking. But when you look at the leading indicators in the report, the future looks pretty good. I'll take it.... I just need to see 2 or 3 months of good news, before Im completely sold on it. All the head hunters I work with have been saying that a flood gate is about to open. I've heard that many of the lay-offs in 2009 were out of panic, and that some companies laid off prematurely. I hope they are right.
If you noticed, in the GDP report, software purchases were up. That is another leading indicator that companies are about to start hiring. I just hope our industry sees some real growth in wages. The work is out there in our industry, but the pay is just terrible.
Re: Unemployment @ 9.7%
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