My prediction is that Comcast’s exceptionally professional management and staff will undoubtedly run the combined operation far better than A.T. & T./T.C.I. ever did. Prices may stay the same for awhile, but could very likely will be lowered in some of the acquired systems when Comcast begins to uncover a multitude of "dirty little secrets" which the venerable old T.C.I. veterans have always been so good at keeping, and even the best due diligence could not have detected. The big question is which of the existing and acquired systems will be swapped with who…and when? It is only logical that the big three or four will want to consolidate among themselves. Look for smaller or relatively unattached Charter systems (Birmingham someone mentioned?) to go to Comcast…some small Comcast systems to Time Warner or Charter. Entire divisions may go if they are deemed strategically inferior compared to other options. Of course, many smaller MSOs may also participate or even sell out entirely. Time Warner seems the most likely candidate to outright purchase systems due to their planned cable only spin-off IPO this spring but you never know..?
Many of these trades are already in the pre-announcement planning stages, which is the way it is always done, but for morale purposes rank and file are kept in the dark. It is one thing to think that X is acquiring Y, but quite another for both acquirer and to be acquired to realize that when the merger is completed Z will be getting both sides. For now you can only look for the clues…has the MSO been laying off staff, shutting down ancillary areas of operations, closing satellite offices, re-interviewing personnel for the jobs that they already have, unexpectedly shutting down otherwise well run capital projects, temporarily halted the ordering of certain types of cable, connectors or set tops?
The only thing worse than low prices is no work at all because your job just shut down. Play detective in any way you can think of to anticipate the likely fate of your chosen system. Where there is cable smoke there is usually fire and just because it did not eventually happen according to well known rumor certainly does not mean that they were not seriously thinking about it. As to prices, the only way that they will ever go back up is with the MSOs long-term profitability. It is hard for the old school folks to admit that cable was NEVER operated in an efficient businesslike manner and the double-digit profits of years’ past were an accident of bountiful circumstance rather than the execution of a well-planned vision. And the worst thing is that if you have been with an MSO for 20 years you are almost automatically revered (and rewarded) as one of the “great ones” instead of being recognized as another potential culprit who aided and abetted in landing us all in the current disastrous morass. Just like the recent dot.com boom, but over a much longer and painful period of time.
On that subject, if Paul Allen or Steve Case actually understood the cable business the fix would be relatively simple since they have both recently experienced and survived that boom and subsequent bust. Some of you system folks might want to cover your eyes because you are not going to want to read the following set of suggestions to today’s cable gurus:
1) hire a qualified independent entity (CATV consulting firm or headhunter or…?) to interview and evaluate each individual, including your entire HR department which should remain COMPLETELY removed from this process 2) follow the recommendations of that entity and layoff corporate and upper level management; reassign or layoff other non-productive employees based on the individual evaluation of each case 3) temporarily cease permanent promotion to mid and upper level management from within (just in case the evaluators did not detect and catch a potential problem) 4) designate key individuals to observe within for a period of three to six months 5) re-interview any questionable or otherwise notable employees and make whatever decision is appropriate (this may mean layoff but it also may mean a well deserved promotion) 6) establish a merit system that has far less to do with seniority (express or implied) and far more to do with actual accomplishments 7) just prior to announcing the layoffs share your strategy with the press, particularly the financial publications – this will most assuredly give your stock price a boost, therefore creating renewed investor confidence and access to large amounts of much needed capital 8) in conjunction with all of the above steps hire a separate independent entity to review the effectiveness of all prime contractors and look especially hard at their individual relationships with every MSO contact counterpart – ask CSRs who they think that the good primes are - interview a random cross section of subcontractors to these primes – review all operations to determine efficiency – compare pricing to other market trade activities – consider streamlining the inherently inefficient prime to subcontractor to actual subcontract employee arrangements and adjust prices where justified to ensure quality workmanship and ultimate customer satisfaction.
> I worked with Comcast years ago in Philly and had a good relationship...Where is this job. I may be going to the same area??? Don't want to get there and job over...Thanks...LA
>
Some thoughts and suggestions
There are 2 replies to this message
