13 to 17 Named Storms Predicted
May 22, 2007 — Experts at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center are projecting a 75 percent chance that the Atlantic Hurricane Season will be above normal this year—showing the ongoing active hurricane era remains strong. With the start of the hurricane season upon us, NOAA recommends those in hurricane-prone regions to begin their preparation plans. (Click NOAA image for larger view of NOAA’s 2007 Atlantic hurricane season outlook. Please credit “NOAA.”)
"For the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA scientists predict 13 to 17 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. An average Atlantic hurricane season brings 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.
News Conference Audio (mp3) — Reagan National Airport,
just outside Washington, D.C.
1) Retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator, opening statement. 4:16 5) Michael Chertoff, secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, opening statement. 4:32
2) Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, opening statement. 4:59 6) David Paulison, FEMA administrator, opening statement. 2:41
3) Bill Proenza, NOAA National Hurricane Center director, opening statement. 3:11 7) News conference Q & A. 14:12
4) Gen. John Bradley, chief of Air Force Reserve, opening statement. 3:23 News Conference Photos
Climate patterns responsible for the expected above normal 2007 hurricane activity continue to be the ongoing multi-decadal signal (the set of ocean and atmospheric conditions that spawn increased Atlantic hurricane activity), warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the El Niño/La Niña cycle.
Last year, seasonal hurricane predictions proved to be too high when an unexpected El Niño rapidly developed and created a hostile environment for Atlantic storms to form and strengthen. When storms did develop, steering currents kept most of them over the open water and away from land. (Click NOAA image for larger view of conditions in the Atlantic Basin that can produce an above normal hurricane season. Please credit “NOAA.”)
"There is some uncertainty this year as to whether or not La Niña will form, and if it does how strong it will be," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. "The Climate Prediction Center is indicating that La Niña could form in the next one to three months. If La Niña develops, storm activity will likely be in the upper end of the predicted range, or perhaps even higher depending on how strong La Niña becomes. Even if La Niña does not develop, the conditions associated with the ongoing active hurricane era still favor an above-normal season."
Bell also noted that pre-season storms, such as Subtropical Storm Andrea in early May, are not an indicator of the hurricane season ahead. "With or without Andrea, NOAA's forecast is for an above normal season."
Its gonna be a Good Year I can feel it in my bones
The 10th named Storm in 2007 is JERRY imagine that . It better be a Cat 5 or Better !! If not I guess me and mother nature will have to tussle .
Hopefully she will be good to me . My choice would be Datona , so don't get made at me Datonians . If your going to deam you might as well wish for what you want. I just hope La Ninya gets its butt to forming the strongest ever on record . Its time for us dogs to take this industry back . Thanks for reading , you readt to ride????????? Duck
